Welcome to the 6th Annual Academy Awards Predictions column here at Enuffa.com, where my colleague Mike Drinan (@mdrinan380) and I compete for bragging rights, prognosticating the Oscars!
As we all know, 2020 was the weirdest year ever for movies. Thanks to COVID, very few films were actually released in theaters and the ones that were only saw modest-at-best box office receipts. Many films were of course pushed back to avoid such financial disappointment, while others were made exclusive to streaming services or simultaneously released in theaters and at home. The qualifying window was extended for this year's ceremony to include any film released between January 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021. For the first time since the 1930s the Oscars include films released during two different calendar years.
As of this moment I've only seen four of the Best Pic nominees but I'm hoping to bang through a couple more this weekend before the show. We shall see. Mr. Drinan is ahead of me I think, and he's also been trouncing me in the predictions the past few years. Come on, Ballard, get it together!
Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Justin: Of the eight films this year I've seen
Judas,
Mank,
Sound of Metal, and
Chicago 7. I admired a great deal the performances in
Judas, I loved the noir atmosphere and score of
Mank, I related to the personal connection to sound and music in
Sound of Metal, and I found
Chicago 7 yet another gripping screenplay by the master Aaron Sorkin. Of the four I think
Chicago 7 was my favorite in fact, but I know it's not taking home the statue, at least not in this category. Of the four films I have yet to watch I'm really looking forward to
Promising Young Woman, as I've heard glowing things about it. But my pick for the gold this year is
Nomadland, the story of a woman who loses her job and decides to, in the words of Jules Winnfield in
Pulp Fiction, "walk the Earth." I've heard mixed things about this one but it sounds like one of those fascinating character studies that's all about establishing mood and setting. I think
Nomadland will take home the trophy.
Prediction: Nomadland
Mike: I have seen all but
Mank,
Sound of Metal and
The Father. Out of all that I've seen,
Promising Young Woman is my favorite and I hope you get to see it this weekend because it's really good. I really enjoyed
Chicago 7 and I'm not surprised it got nominated but it felt like an actor's film. You know, not Best Picture worthy but could nab some acting awards. I felt the same about
Judas. Really great seeing Sacha Baron Cohen take on a serious role. He was good. Before awards season began, my frontrunner pick for Best Picture was
Minari. Such a well-crafted story with a lot of heart and humility to the characters. I loved it. Buuuuut, you have to keep the thunder rolling throughout awards season and right now
Nomadland seems to be a freight train that might be unstoppable. I am picking it to win but hoping for
Minari with the upset.
Prediction: Nomadland
JB Update: I watched
PYW last night and it's superb, I think I agree it's my favorite of the nominees.
Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg - Another Round
David Fincher - Mank
Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
Chloe Zhao - Nomadland
Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
Justin: Quite a diverse group of directors this year, two of whom are women (which I think is a record for this category), and two of whom are Asian-American (which I'm 99% sure is a record for this category). Last year of course Bong Joon Ho became the first Asian director to take home the statue. I think we'll see a streak formed this year, as Chloe Zhao is my pick to win for
Nomadland, also making her the first female director since Kathryn Bigelow to win this award. Side note, it's good to see David Fincher get his third Best Director nomination; hopefully one of these years he'll win one.
Prediction: Chloe Zhao
Mike: Chloe Zhao has been absolutely cleaning up in this category this awards season and I think the Academy will keep it going for her.
Prediction: Chloe Zhao