Well it's that time again. Man, seems like we just did this, hard to believe the Oscars are already upon us again. This is the eleventh time Mr. Drinan and I go head-to-head in predicting the ceremony. Let's get to it!
There are some fine films on the docket to win some gold, a few of them pretty important ones given the current state of affairs in this dump. The world, particularly America, needs movies that make a statement perhaps more than it ever has. So it's good to see some of these films get the recognition they deserve. Oh, and to everyone whining about the winners making political statements in their acceptance speech? Waaaaah. The only reason you're crying about this is because they aren't making statements you agree with, and you know it. Art is quite often political and it has the power to change the world. Either come along for the ride or don't, but don't bitch about it.
Sinners has made Oscar history with a staggering SIXTEEN nominations, breaking All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land's shared record of fourteen. Quite an historic feat, particularly for a horror film. The last horror movie the Academy took such notice of was The Exorcist.
Sinners has made Oscar history with a staggering SIXTEEN nominations, breaking All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land's shared record of fourteen. Quite an historic feat, particularly for a horror film. The last horror movie the Academy took such notice of was The Exorcist.
I cannot thank the Academy enough for passing over Avatar: Fire and Ash so I don't have to watch it. Jeezus H. Christ, those movies are fucking boring.
We also have a brand new category this year in Best Casting. Good to see those folks finally acknowledged. Years ago I had friends tell me I should've been a casting director when I predicted Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne and Edward Norton as Bruce Banner. Apparently I have a gift for casting characters named Bruce.
We also have a brand new category this year in Best Casting. Good to see those folks finally acknowledged. Years ago I had friends tell me I should've been a casting director when I predicted Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne and Edward Norton as Bruce Banner. Apparently I have a gift for casting characters named Bruce.
Anyway, let's get to the picks.....
Best Picture
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
The Secret Agent
Justin: I'm in pretty good shape going into this, having seen seven of the ten. Hamnet is now on Peacock so I'm hoping to catch that before Sunday. Marty Supreme will be on HBO Max but not until May it looks like, and I have no idea when The Secret Agent will be free to stream. Anyway this looks to be another case of the Academy actually agreeing with me on what the best film of the year is, as all signs point to Paul Thomas Anderson's fourth (by my count) masterwork, One Battle After Another taking home the big one. This film is fantastic and a much needed kick in the ass to our current status quo. It's on HBO Max so go watch it if you haven't.
Pick: One Battle After Another
Mike: THE DRAMA STARTS EARLY FOLKS! One Battle After Another has certainly been the popular pick for this award ever since it was released, and for good reason. It’s a great film; dramatic yet hilarious, tense and ridiculous, emotional yet politically sharp. The movie has steamrolled all the pre-cursor award shows and is set up with one of the most historically impressive award winning resumes going into the Academy Awards. HOWEVER! Sinners possesses a small data point that makes this award intriguing. It won the SAG Ensemble award, ACE Award, and is probably going to win the WGA Original Screenplay. No film has had those three awards and lost the Best Picture category, with the lone exception being CODA. I loved both movies, but I felt as if I had seen films like One Battle After Another before. Sinners? I felt as if I had never seen that kind of movie before. It’s splitting hairs at this point but I have to follow my heart on this one.
Pick: Sinners
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler - Sinners
Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
Chloe Zhao - Hamnet
Justin: I've seen three of these and once again it seems the Academy agrees with me that Mr. Anderson should finally win this award. Ryan Coogler would also be a deserving option, as Sinners is quite an achievement as well. But I think it's PTA's time.
Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson
Mike: PTA won the Director’s Guild Awards so it is almost assuredly a lock for him at this point. HOWEVER! Could this act as a consolation prize for PTA not winning Best Picture? We shall see.
Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
Wager Moura - The Secret Agent
Justin: Only seen two of these performances, which is unusual for me. Of the two I'd probably pick Leo's performance, but Jordan's is quite excellent as well. One performance that got overlooked from where I sit is Jesse Plemons' unhinged turn in Bugonia. Alas. It seemed early on like Mr. Chalamet was a lock to finally get his flowers for Marty Supreme but then Mr. Jordan pulled off the upset at the SAG Awards, making this something of a two-horse race. This kinda feels like an Argo situation where there's a late surge for an underdog candidate.
Pick: Michael B. Jordan
Mike: I agree with your take on Jesse Plemons’ character. He’s starting to become one of my favorite actors to watch. Michael B. Jordan is definitely having a run as of late and for good reason. The man played two roles in the film, and both character performances were incredible and unique. You knew exactly who was who even though it was the same actor playing both characters. Extra points!!
Pick: Michael B. Jordan
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
Emma Stone - Bugonia
Justin: I've seen three of these, all of them excellent. Emma Stone is always great, but she just won this award two years ago so I don't think it'll be her. Renate Reinsve is fantastic in Sentimental Value and I would be perfectly content to see her walk away with it. But it's going to be between one performance I haven't seen, Jessie Buckley's, and one I have, which was my favorite in this category so far, Rose Byrne in IIHLIKY. This was a career-defining performance for her, and she's won some much deserved trophies so far. It's a tough call who takes this one, but I think Jessie's won more awards this season, plus the Academy loves them some Shakespeare-related movies.
Pick: Jessie Buckley
Mike: I’ve seen three of these as well, shout out to Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue. Can’t help it, I’m a sucker for Neil Diamond tune. Anyways, I was impressed with Rose Byrne’s performance as well and really happy she took it on. I’m with you on this one though. The Academy can’t pass up Shakespeare.
Pick: Jessie Buckley
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
Jacob Eldori - Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo - Sinners
Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value
Justin: This one might be the toughest to call. I've actually seen all of these and it's a helluva field. I'd have probably subbed out Delroy Lindo for Miles Caton, but I can't argue with any of the other four nominees. Del Toro brings his usual quirks to his sensei revolutionary character, Elordi is gentle and conflicted as Frankenstein's monster, conveying much with body language and facial expressions, Sean Penn is reptilian and pathetic as the white supremacist Col. Lockjaw, and Skarsgard does maybe his best work as the estranged father in Sentimental Value. These seem to be the two frontrunners, though Del Toro has been picking up quite a few smaller awards. I think Penn's was my favorite performance of the five but it's possible he and Del Toro might cancel each other out and pave the way for Skarsgard. Then on the other hand, the Academy LOVES Sean Penn.
Pick: Sean Penn
Mike: I’m going with Delroy Lindo. His character Delta Slim had such an emotional and human depth to it that it’s hard for me to look anywhere else. As much as I also enjoyed Sean Penn’s insane performance, there was not much more beneath the surface to his character.
Pick: Delroy Lindo
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan - Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another
Justin: I've seen all five of these as well, and like the Best Supporting Actor category we have a film with two nominees. Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas are both quite good in Sentimental Value, though I'd have swapped out Fanning for Chase Infiniti of One Battle After Another. Then we have Wunmi Mosaku who was excellent as one of Michael B. Jordan's Sinners love interests, Teyana Taylor as Leo's AWOL partner in One Battle, and acting veteran Amy Madigan's terrifying turn in Weapons. Madigan has been collecting quite a few awards for this role, so I think she's my pick.
Pick: Amy Madigan
Mike: I’m sitting there, watching Weapons when this clown like character is introduced. I’m watching this character with an obvious “WTF?” look on my face at this character until I hear the voice. I think to myself, “I know that voice. Where do I know that voice?” And then it hits me. “At least he’s not a book burner, you Nazi cow.” Annie Kinsella from Field of Dreams!!!! Unrecognizable in this role. Mesmerizing and absolutely freaky. Loved every second of her screen time.
Pick: Amy Madigan
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
It Was Just An Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Justin: I've only seen two of these, Value and Sinners. I'd be happy with either of them winning. Sinners has been doing very well in this category so I think I'll go with that.
Pick: Sinners
Mike: It Was Just an Accident was a really good movie about wanting revenge against a former tormentor and the compromising ideals and values that comes along with it. I enjoyed the movie and the overall theme resonated with me. HOWEVER! This category is Sinners' to lose.
Pick: Sinners
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Justin: The only one of these I haven't seen is Hamnet, which again I hope to rectify before Sunday. The other four are all very well-written, though as I said in my Frankenstein review I was bothered by how much Guillermo Del Toro changed about the story. Bugonia is fantastically wacky. Train Dreams is meditative and poignant. But One Battle After Another shines, another beautifully written script by PTA. He's been cleaning up with this script so I think he's the one here too.
Pick: One Battle After Another
Mike: Wise man once said, "Stay out of the way of a steamroller."
Pick: One Battle After Another
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman
Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso
Justin: Marty is the only one of these I haven't seen, but the other four all boast excellent work behind the camera. Frankenstein has GDT's signature visual style, with loads of wide angles and vibrant colors. OBAA has one of the most creatively blocked car chase scenes I've ever witnessed. Train Dreams features stunning, lonely natural imagery. But Autumn Durald Arkapaw's work on Sinners stands above the rest from where I sit, her camera floats effortlessly through scenes, often capturing simultaneous action in single unbroken shots and plunging us right in the middle of everything. This is a spectacularly photographed film.
Pick: Sinners
Mike: I second everything you just said. Sinners just looks beautiful and was perfectly captured.
Pick: Sinners
Best Original Score
Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet – Max Richter
One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
Justin: Once again I've seen all but Hamnet. Jerskin Fendrix's score is weird and off-putting like the film itself. Alexandre Desplat's work is romantic and sweeping. Jonny Greenwood adds to his already impressive filmography in partnering with PTA. But Ludwig Goransson is deservedly becoming an Academy favorite, having won for Black Panther and Oppenheimer. I think he'll take him his third Oscar here for Sinners.
Pick: Ludwig Goransson
Mike: Ludwig captured the spirit of the film and its characters and the area in which the story is based. It blends styles and sounds so perfectly. The music is what this film is known for and what everyone had been talking about ever since the film was released.
Pick: Ludwig Goransson
Tiebreaker: Best Documentary Short Film
All the Empty Rooms
Armed With Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: "Were and Are Gone"
The Devil is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness
Justin: These are some intriguing titles. I have no idea what any of them are about, but I'm gonna go with the one that stands out the most for its weird grammar:
Pick: Perfectly a Strangeness
Mike: I haven’t seen any of these but did catch the description for All the Empty Rooms and I’m sold.
Pick: All the Empty Rooms
That'll do it for this year's Oscar picks. Enjoy the ceremony!
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