Friday, September 18, 2015

NFL Pick 'em: Week 2

Welcome back to your official NFL picks, for week 2, where my associates Dan, Miggsy and B-Cuddy predict the top three games of each week.  Let's get to it!

Points Standings

Dan's Picks

Goddamn Mike Tomlin screwing me outta two points last week. Not even from the betting perspective on this, but can anyone explain to the what he was doing? They were down by two touchdowns with about ten seconds left. All he was doing was risking injury to his players. Befuddles my mind. Thankfully I was drunk. Anyways, onto the new week.

St. Louis (-3.5) @ Washington – THE PICK = ST. LOUIS
The one team as inept as my picks last week was Washington. Sure, they almost came back to squish the fish. But their ineptitude played out as planned. I expect that to continue this week (and honestly throughout the season. Skins STINK). Nick Foles should light up this sad looking defense. And whichever Gruden is coaching the Skins can make make faces and scream all day as his team loses, as usual.

Tennessee (-1) @ Cleveland - THE PICK= TENNESSEE
The New York Jets carved up the Browns defense last week's and beat them by three touchdowns. With Harvard grad Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm of the Jets offense. Now, I'm not dumb enough to think Marcus Mariota is the next great quarterback yet, but I damn sure know he's better than Fitzy. And I damn sure know that the line is waaaaay too low for this game. I don't see Cleveland being too competitive in this game. Johnny Football looked flustered last week and Tennessee's gonna bring the heat to him. 

New England (-1) @ Buffalo - THE PICK= NEW ENGLAND
Sticking with the Pats. I'm just not sold on another Rex Ryan loud mouth team here. Like the two putzes below celebrating early season wins like you can get a championship in the first week, Rex is a lot a talk and a big, fat, bald head (wait, that's just Miggsy).

Seriously, look at Miggsy's Mr. Clean-like dome.
Hard to tell who's wearing the mascot head.

Maybe it'll be a close game for 2 or 3 quarters before the Pats pull away with a big road win, with Brady improving to 24-3 in his career over Buffalo. I mean, look at these past results. Their only win last year was when Brady left after the first half, no Gronk, no Edelman & the rest of the team was on strict don't get injured mode. Buffalo doesn't scare New England. At all.

B-Cuddy’s Picks

What do you know about your boy getting a perfect 4 points right out of the gate? It’s a festivus miracle! The other bums on here got burnt in the Pats game by the all too common “backdoor cover.” Garbage time points will drive a gambler to the brink of insanity and cripple his wallet. Not only do you lose the bet, you also have to replace whatever furniture is in pieces. They make TV’s really great nowadays, but I’ve yet to encounter one that can withstand the impact of a remote at 75mph. Moving on. The key to picking in week 2 is to not overreact to what you saw week 1. Teams still don’t have cohesiveness and are far away from a finished product. No Pats fan forgets how they started last year. Don’t overreact. Heed this advice. Or don’t, I don’t give a shit. On to the picks:

San Diego @ Cincinnati (-3.5) – The Pick = CINCY
I hate Phillip Rivers. Despise him. LOATHE him. He gets praised way more than deserved. He’s constantly throwing a tantrum out on the field. All the asshole analysts (alliteration on fleek) chalk it up to him being a “fiery competitor.” I think he’s just a douchebag.

Editor's note: How can you hate a man in a bolo tie?!?!
The Chargers usually compete, but they’re barely above mediocre in my mind. Cincy is also far from special. And they’re great to bet against in the playoffs. But they play well during the regular season. On paper, they have a lot of talent on both sides. Jeremy Hill and AJ Green are really good skill position players. Geno Atkins is a monster on the d-line. Their corners are decent when they aren’t getting DUI’s or shooting people in strip clubs. The biggest concern as always with Cincy is Andy Dalton. The Red…whatever. Look, when he’s bad, he’s brutal. He’s terrible against the blitz, and even worse in big games. But this isn’t a big game, and San Diego doesn’t have an elite blitzing defense. If he can manage to have just an average day, the Bengals win without a problem. That’s what I think happens. I’m gonna lay the 3.5 points, throw on some Ed Sheeran, and watch Cincy win by a touchdown.

NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-7) – The Pick = JETS
My line of thinking here may seem like it goes against the very advice I mentioned up above, but it goes deeper than a 1 game reaction. The Pats wrote the blueprint on how to beat Indy, and Buffalo copied it. Indy cannot stop a decent running game. They just can’t do it. The Jets run game is better than you think with Chris Ivory. He might get 35 carries Monday night. The Colts also struggled offensively against a very aggressive Bills defense. The Bills were in Luck’s neck-beard all day. Expect the same from the Jets. And on top of that, Colts wideout and best weapon, TY Hilton, isn’t going to play. That’s a problem. Hilton’s speed probably meant Revis wasn’t going to cover him exclusively, and thus giving the Colts some opportunities for big plays. That’s out the window now. Maybe it’s not as gloomy as I’m making it out to be, but there’s no way the Colts should be giving 7 points. They may even win (hopefully because fuck the Jets), but they aren’t covering.

St. Louis (-3.5) @ Washington – The Pick = ST. LOUIS

I’m picking against Washington a lot this season because they blow. Meanwhile, the Rams d-line is among the best in the NFL. It’s going to be ugly for the Skins. I’m not even going to watch the game because I’m not about to sit there and watch them spill that Cousins boy all over the dock. Picking a road favorite as my BOOM pick is a gamble, especially a dome team on the road. But last season St. Louis shutout the Skins 24-0 in FedEx field. I expect the same kind of outcome. (Look at that again…those proportions are correct). All signs suggest the Redskins are lining up to be a hot lunch.

And as for Cousins specifically:
You’re in that offense?
Offense goes on the field?
You go on the field?
Rams on the field?
Those Rams?
........Farewell and adieu to you fair Spanish ladies….

Miggsy's Picks

Last week I warned of the perils of betting against the home underdog. Home dogs went 4-4 last week against the spread(ATS), the four wins were actual team wins, nothing to do with spread. Two of the 4 losses ATS were within 3 pts of covering.The only team that got blown out at home was Oakland (that should give you all the information you need) who lost their starting QB in the game. Any novice handicapper should familiarize themselves with this phenomenon and take warning. Playing at home in football, especially at the college and NFL ranks, is a huge advantage. It’s way more influential than in any other sport. Watch this week as the crowd from Buffalo attempts to disrupt the rhythm of the visiting Patriots. They are even going to try and break the noise record. If they don’t get it in the stadium they should try and get it in the parking lot while all those fans are crying on the way out of the stadium. LOSERS.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (-2) – The Pick= GIANTS
The G-men almost pulled off the upset in week one over Dallas in big D. Atlanta on the other hand, squeaked out a win at home because of a late missed field goal by Philly. I’m sure Chip Kelley is regretting not going for it on 4th and one now. I would have gone for it but I create spreadsheets for a living, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I thought the Giants did a good job of limiting one of the best receivers in the game, Dez Bryant, to just 18 yards. Oh and they also broke his foot. That spells trouble for another leading wide out this week, Julio Jones. Philly seemed to move that ball at will in the second half against at Atlanta. I see the Giants doing the same with their new offense. Also, the Giants live and die by the turnover and Atlanta is prone to turning the ball over. I’ve picked the Giants twice in a row, so groty; I think I need a shower.

San Fran @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) – STEELERS
San Fran is TERRIBLE. Yeah they managed to put up 20 on Minnesota at home. Minnesota is TERRIBLE. Teddy Bridgewater couldn’t hit the water if he fell out of a boat. Meanwhile, the Steelers took on the defending champs on the road. They back door’d a cover which killed my Monster Lock last week by ½ a point; paving the way for B-Cuddy’s inflated gambling ego. Even still, I like Pittsburgh in this spot. I don’t see them running the ball like they did against the Pats but I do see them having more success in the air than the Vikes. Big Ben throws for 350+ and 3 TDs in this one. It should be more than enough.

Miggy’s Monster Lock of the Week
Miami Dolphins (-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – The Pick =DOLPHINS
Remember what I said late week about home underdogs? That doesn’t apply to Jacksonville they are perennial cellar dwellers, inept in all facets of the game. If they could find a helmet that would fit Danny’s head, I think he could play for Jacksonville. I’d imagine that a lot of fins fans take the short flight to Jacksonville minimizing any home field advantage. Minus 6 should be a layup for Miami.
They might win this game by 30.

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