Welcome to the official Enuffa.com Oscar Predictions, with Mike Drinan and myself. We'll each go through the major categories (plus a tiebreaker) and offer our predictions for who'll be taking home the statuettes. Seems like a fairly predictable show this year but you never know. So let's get to it....
Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Mike: This year I was able to see 5 of the 8 nominees. Not terrible but I decided to not watch
Mad Max: Fury Road (even though it was free on HBO) because I’m not into the
Mad Max movies. I could’ve rented
Bridge Of Spies but I was just flat out not interested. The previews for that movie looked so cheesy and overdone. I still have questions as to why it’s even nominated in the first place. The movie
Brooklyn was the only one of the nominees that I wanted to see but didn’t get a chance to, however I’m confident that I was able to watch the eventual Best Picture winner. Both
Room and
The Martian were excellent movies, intelligent movies, that had interesting, complex characters with plots that allowed the audience to see them and dissect, even question their motives (in the case of
Room). But this race narrowed late in the year and if you would’ve asked me Thanksgiving weekend which film I thought would be Best Picture, I’d have told you
Spotlight. It was dramatic, insightful, subtle with its tension and certainly controversial. The acting was tremendous. The screenplay damn near spotless. BUT...then came
The Revenant and just sealed the deal. I don’t think it was a better movie than
Spotlight, I just feel that the Leo for Best Actor campaign has reached such a fever pitch that it will transfer over to the Best Picture category. Plus, that bear attack scene was pretty dope. I also don’t count out
The Big Short either. It’s a topical film, tied closely to the country and times we live in now and we’re all well aware that Hollywood loves a good cause.
The Big Short and
Spotlight are prime contenders to play spoiler.
Prediction:
The Revenant
Justin: I've also seen five of the nominees but I'm hoping to watch at least
Spotlight before Sunday.
Bridge of Spies is pretty low on my to-do list as well. With a lot of these awards there'll be a discrepancy between what I'd like to see win and what I think actually will (which is not at all uncommon). Of the five nominees I've seen (
The Big Short, Mad Max, The Martianm, Room &
The Revenant) I'd say
The Big Short was my favorite overall.
Mad Max is my sentimental favorite because I love that franchise and it's so refreshing to see a movie like that get this kind of critical recognition.
The Martian was really well done and surprisingly light and upbeat given the subject matter.
Room was haunting, disturbing, heartbreaking, and yet ultimately hopeful, even buoyant. Now, about
The Revenant. Visually
The Revenant is unlike anything I've ever seen. Innaritu has taken a timeworn film genre and made it look completely different that what you'd expect, from the intimate wide-angle shots that place the emphasis squarely on the subject, to the meditative landscape montages, this movie should absolutely win Best Cinematography (I'll actually be angry if it doesn't). It's gorgeous. However, the story doesn't quite sustain itself for the 150+ minutes. This film really needed about twenty minutes trimmed to keep things moving a little faster. By the time the story reached its climax I found myself emotionally disengaged, and that's not where the viewer should be at this point in a film about revenge. I watched a video review of this film (at RedLetterMedia.com) where one sentence really summed it up for me: I appreciated
The Revenant more than I enjoyed it. That said, this movie is a mortal lock to win Best Picture.
Prediction:
The Revenant
Best Director
Adam McKay - The Big Short
George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Inarritu - The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson - Room
Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
Mike: I go back and forth on this category. Originally, I thought Inarritu was all but assured for this award. Then Adam McKay had to remind me he actually made a very serious film and it was so...fucking...good. Then there’s Tom McCarthy and that whole story with its great cast. Lenny Abrahamson also did a great job but there’s somewhat unfinished business I felt at the end of
Room that doesn’t make me confident he’s in the running here. George Miller comes to mind quickly. He’s 70 and a first-time nominee and the consistently great reviews for
Mad Max lead me to believe that this race is between him and Inarritu. What Miller has going for him is Inarritu won this category last year and I think people might be kind of tired of him. However, Innarritu did win the Director’s Guild Award and historically the winner of that award usually goes on to win the Oscar. (In 67 years, only 7 winners of the DGA have not won the Oscar) I think I’m going chalk here.
Prediction: Alejandro G. Inarritu for
The Revenant
Justin: I agree with Mike's take, it's clearly between Inarritu and Miller. I'd love for Adam McKay to win, particularly since he's a screwball comedy director who clearly stretched his legs with
The Big Short. It's funny but also deals with a heavy topic, and visually it's completely different from McKay's previous work. But yeah it'll either be Inarritu, to rack up the awards for
The Revenant (He'd be the first director to ever win back-to-back Oscars), or George Miller for reinventing
Mad Max for the 21st Century (not to mention a pretty darn good overall career). Just to keep things interesting I'll go with Miller, as the Academy loves to give out unofficial Lifetime Achievement awards.
Prediction: George Miller for
Mad Max: Fury Road